Over Easter, I went to the Upper Hunter Valley to visit my wife’s parents. At the moment, my father-in-law is working at a power station on a shutdown project, and one night the general conversation went to the dependence of the Hunter upon coal.
His view is simple — we don’t know what effect we’re really having on the climate, and everyone in the Hunter needs the jobs. To him, bowing to the “greenies” would ruin the livelihoods of people who depend upon coal and gas mining for a crust.
The Queensland CFMEU Mining and Energy division appears to be of the same persuasion, demanding Labor candidates to sign pledges of support for future coal projects like Adani’s Carmichael coal mine. The climate needs fixing, but not at the expense of our livelihoods, say the populations who depend on coal mines and power plants for jobs. The sentiment is echoed by many people off the street in Central Queensland, Western Australia and the Hunter Valley who are dragged in front of a TV camera for the nightly news take.
Who can blame them? Nothing they have heard from the major political parties would give them reassurance that there’ll be another job. Labor talks about renewable energy transition in one sentence and expanding coal and gas exports in another, the Coalition vacillates between outright climate change denial and token reforms, the Greens choose awareness promotion and rhetoric over outlining a detailed technical plan for energy revolution. There is either a complete failure of political vision in turning the conversation to how jobs would look in a renewable energy future, in the regions that would be affected, or there is an even bigger failure in political media in failing to take notice of it.
With those questions hanging around in my mind, I wanted to know — would there be less jobs for people in the Hunter Valley if the power stations and mines were closed, and energy generation was all renewable?
Turns out, the University of Newcastle and Greenpeace had looked at this exact question back in 2008, in a report which was submitted to an inquiry into the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Amendment Bill 2009. UofN’s Centre of Full Employment and Equity submitted a report that used input-output modelling to discern what impact a transition from coal to renewable energy electricity would have on employment in the region. Far from being a jobs armageddon, the modelling revealed that under two different scenarios, jobs would increase.
The first model looked at making the Hunter Valley a self-sufficient renewable energy centre. It would produce 23% of New South Wales’ electricity from solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy (or gas co-generation), including enough power for the aluminium smelters at Tomago and Kurri Kurri. The net jobs gain under this scenario would have been 5,800 direct and indirect jobs.
The second model was a scenario where the Hunter Valley would become a renewable energy exporter to New South Wales, albeit on a smaller scale than at present — producing about 40% of New South Wales’ power needs. The modelling showed that 10,700 net jobs would be created.
The Australia Institute put out a report in 2017 modelling the employment numbers for the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan for a transition to 53% renewable energy by 2030. They found that even under a low-employment scenario where most materials were manufactured overseas and imported, over 18,000 construction and installation jobs would be created. Ongoing maintenance and operations jobs would be in the order of 7,000–12,500 jobs. In the 2016 census, around 8,000 people employed were in the fossil fuel electricity generation sector, including gas generation. Can I emphasise, the TAI estimates for ongoing jobs is for half the sector, not the whole sector as news.com.au erroneously reported in 2017.
A further boon to the prospects of regional jobs is the prospect of pumped hydro power’s viability once renewable energy is at a point where energy storage is required. An ANU study completed in 2019 identified 530,000 off-river pumped hydro sites that could store well over the energy required for a 100% renewable energy powered world — so many, less than one percent of the best ones would be needed. In Australia, they found 22,000 sites, with only 3,000 that avoided national parks and urban areas being retained for their report. Off-river pumped hydro doesn’t require lithium, lasts far longer than a battery and can wind up in a few minutes, making them ideal for Australian demand management, while creating them off rivers avoids ecological destruction of sensitive river systems.
Following on from the rest of the academic work establishing the feasibility of a renewable energy world in a capitalist paradigm, why isn’t it happening? Politicians and business leader would be feted as working class heroes if they could bring these job-creating future industries to the regions that have been rotting, due to the massive impacts the neoliberal consensus has had on regional and rural communities through squeezing commodity prices and removing protections from imported food and fibres. A great new decentralised energy generation, transmission and distribution network would revitalise the regions with skilled, well-paid work. What is stopping everyone from seeing the benefits in an economic sense, let alone the ecological benefits that would allow their natural resources to avoid destruction from dangerous climate change?
The answer is the implications for the $4.65 trillion in fossil fuel assets across the globe, largely backed by huge finance corporations, feeding taxes and royalties to governments and profits to shareholders in an increasingly precarious market. As this portfolio of assets becomes persona non grata to the majority of the world’s markets, turning to renewable energy solutions for electricity generation, industrial production and transport, the popping of the carbon bubble promises armageddon for world financial markets. As one side of the market brings cheaper, stable prices and zero fuel costs, the other side containing overvalued stores of energy and stranded assets will explode. The result, if not managed carefully (in the interests of asset holders, of course) would be another global financial crisis, bigger than 2007-09.
The contradiction capital has to manage is the ecological destruction of business-as-usual versus the financial destruction wrought by the necessary rapid transition to a fossil fuel free global economy. However, the dialectic is not equal — the impacts of ecological destruction are not equally borne by all.
The masses of working class and poor peoples across the world, especially in the low-lying cities and towns of developing countries and small Pacific islands, will see their homes and livelihoods be swallowed by the sea and flattened by intensified storms, while fisheries are annihilated by heating oceans killing off breeding grounds and food sources. Farming and subsistence communities will see their climatic conditions change so that yields are hammered, rainfall reduced, and their lands become unable to regenerate as they are eroded by overstocking and intensified extreme weather. The rich who own enough resources, and can mitigate the impacts well enough, can build their walls — and borders — and keep out the poorest who will suffer the most.
However, even the BHP executives, Clive Palmers and Gina Rineharts can’t ignore the population of Australia that works to produce their wealth. Someone will bomb Clive Palmer’s exclusive bunker eventually in a climate change-induced Australian dystopia! (Watch the Tomorrow Tonight episode on climate change if you want to see what I’m joking about). If the majority of Australians, and the world citizenry for that matter, came to realise that not only would the end of fossil fuel reliance bring about more jobs, but it would revitalise moribund communities across the country, as well as possibly preventing the worst catastrophes hypothesized and currently observed by the international scientific community, politicians would be shouted down constantly in the streets whenever they defended the fossil fuel industry. Yet, people are convinced that jobs, the economy, and everyone’s livelihood relies on fossil fuel extraction, because that is the message that the bourgeoisie send as a united front, out into the wider population.
Looking at our lives, here in the comfortable and wealthy Australia, it’s true. Try and find a product in your house that didn’t require oil, gas or coal to produce or power. The onslaught of plastic waste our societies throw away is oil, sucked up and shaped into something to consume and dispose of, releasing carbon emissions into the atmosphere and causing environmental havoc from extraction onwards. All the metals, electronic devices, manufactured items, all contain fossil fuel input. Metallurgical coal is a vital component of steelmaking. Industrial machines require oil-based lubricants. It’s unavoidable.
The capitalist markets do not reward the ecological benefits of switching to renewable and sustainable sources. Extraction cost and productivity are prime. This is the fundamental reason as to why markets have comprehensively failed to account for sustainability and ecological damage in the costs of commodity production.
The implementation of the financial industry monopoly on production has further complicated capitalism’s attempts to untangle the climate change problem. Because the stock markets have bet on large unrealised wealth, by assigning trillions of dollars of value to unextracted fossil fuel deposits, the resulting losses would cripple the capital reserves of the world. Without the promise of future earnings from the now-useless claims to untapped fossil fuels, lenders will come to call and get as much back for their investment as possible. The ensuing withdrawal of capital from the economy, before that happens, would result in the mass withdrawal of opportunities for workers to sell their labour, causing destitution and deprivation.
This illustrates how the rules are always written to benefit those with, rather than without. We do not have the state on side to demand food and water — the businessman can call on the court to order the state to recover capital. Hence, as it ever was, revolution and expropriation is the necessary action to get what we need to survive.
On the flipside, in an anarchist communist society, none of that happens. Money is abolished, capital and resources belong to the communities that produce the necessities of life from them, people band together and build a zero emissions electricity network, and fossil fuels stay in the ground at no cost to anyone. There is more to it than that, however the contradictions that exist under Australian and global capitalism will not exist in a revolutionary society.
So, how do we convince the people at the power station and the smelter, that the way out of the coming crunch is a green (and red and black) path?
We have to directly address their concerns.
The immediate question must be answered — what about my livelihood? They must be convinced that it is possible for them to survive and thrive, even within a capitalist transition to zero emissions electricity, and that plans exist for it. There have been just transition plans put out into public for over a decade. In fact, their long term livelihood and their children’s livelihoods depend upon getting out of fossil fuels before everyone else does.
The issues with supporting the capitalist transition must also be spelled out. The carbon bubble is a problem that is being minimised, and for a reason — it threatens a massive wipeout of global capital. Moreover, it is the reason why business pushes as a united front against rapid transition, which is possible and benefits working people.
Finally, we must say why our solution of socialist revolution is better. The contradictions of global capitalism are eliminated by international socialist revolution, by abolishing currency, expropriating private property and turning it over to communal bodies for democratic management, within and between these communal groups in mutual actions. Obviously, more detail is required here, however I’ve prattled on enough for my first substantial post.
The people who we need to patiently explain these issues directly to, do not typically live in the inner cities, where most socialist organising currently happens. Where I live for example, in Ipswich (apparently Blair is the second-most left-leaning federal seat in Queensland according to the ABC Vote Compass), socialist organising appears to be a party of one. The outer suburbs, commuter towns, and regional towns are where disaffection is greatest in Australia. People who are currently looking for any outlet for their dissatisfaction that seems remotely working-class, need to be included in the discussion, the movement, the solution.
When the workers at the coal face realise their predicament, and that their company who employs them will not look after them when the chips are down, then we can help them to overturn the system that screws them.
I’ll let you know if this convinces my father-in-law.